France, Spain and Belgium ‘ready for no-deal Brexit next week’
© Thomson Reuters French President Emmanuel Macron and Britain’s Prime Minister Theresa May attend an European Union leaders summit in Brussels, Belgium, June 28, 2018. REUTERS/Francois Lenoir France has won the support of Spain and Belgium after signalling its readiness for a no-deal Brexit on 12 April if there are no significant new British proposals, according to a note of an EU27 meeting seen by the Guardian.
The diplomatic cable reveals that the French ambassador secured the support of Spanish and Belgian colleagues in arguing that there should only be, at most, a short article 50 extension to avoid an instant financial crisis, saying: “We could probably extend for a couple of weeks to prepare ourselves in the markets.”
The chances of Theresa May’s proposal of an extension to 30 June succeeding appeared slim as France’s position in the private diplomatic meeting was echoed by an official statement reiterating its opposition to any further Brexit delay without a clear British plan.
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May wrote to the president of the European council, Donald Tusk, on Friday to ask for the delay until 30 June while she battles to win cross-party agreement on a way forward.
EU states are extremely sceptical that an extension to 30 June will resolve anything in Westminster. Tusk is pushing the EU to offer at a summit next Wednesday what he has described as a “flextension” in which the UK would be given a year-long extension with an option to come out early if the deal is ratified.
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“[I]n the absence of such a plan, we would have to acknowledge that the UK chose to leave the EU in a disorderly manner.”
A spokesman for the Belgian prime minister, Charles Michel, rejected claims that Belgium would oppose the “flextension”. “We have never publicly or privately opposed extending article 50,” he said.
The French ambassador took a sterner line than de Montchalin, insisting that there was no justification, and only danger, in extending the UK’s membership of the EU.
If the EU did only allow a two-week extension the UK would then have an opportunity to revoke article 50, setting up the possibility of a straight vote in parliament between leaving with no deal and overturning the result of the referendum.
But despite the French intervention, a second EU source insisted the “discussion showed wide support to Tusk’s idea of a long flextension”.
“Some member states insisted on the need to have a clear UK plan before granting a long extension,” the source added. “Some member states insisted on assurances for sincere cooperation.”
But Paris is lobbying for EU governments to stay true to the summit communique of 21 March, where leaders offered an extension until 22 May should the withdrawal agreement be approved.
A longer extension would be granted if there was a clear indication from the British government on the way forward, which it does not believe has yet materialised.
France, with the agreement of the Belgian and Spanish ambassadors, agreed that the current position coming from London did not meet these conditions.
“If the European council were to take the view that it is going to be a no deal next week, we could probably extend for a couple of weeks to prepare ourselves in the markets,” the French ambassador said, according to the diplomatic note.
“A no agreement is still the most probable scenario,” France’s ambassador concluded, with the subsequent agreement of Spain and Belgium.
A senior EU official briefing the ambassadors conceded there were concerns about a tweet earlier on Friday by the Conservative MP and chairman of the Eurosceptic European Research Group, Jacob Rees-Mogg, stating that the British government should disrupt the EU from within in the event of a long extension of EU membership.
Earlier in the day a European commission spokesman played down the impact of Rees-Mogg’s remarks. He said: “This gentleman is not our interlocutor and I would say then that the principle of sincere cooperation does apply as the Prime Minister May herself makes it clear in her letter.”
But an EU source said that the threat implicit in the Conservative MP’s tweet was “turning into the biggest issue”. “How can we make sure the UK doesn’t pull a Jacob Rees-Mogg? How can we make sure they play nice? On the one hand a short extension or a no-deal carries risks, but a long extension risks paralysis.”
Later, the European parliament’s chief Brexit representative, Guy Verhofstadt, wrote in response to Rees-Mogg’s tweet: “For those in the EU who may be tempted to further extend the Brexit saga, I can only say, be careful what you wish for.”
In the meeting, the German ambassador said that all efforts should be made to avoid a no-deal Brexit, given the economic consequences on both sides of the Channel. “Keep the ball in London’s court,” the German ambassador said. “Long or short extension, I don’t want to get into that. Let’s see.”
EU sources said that strong conditions on any extension might be the key to persuading France to agree to avoid no deal.
But according to the leaked diplomatic cable, the French ambassador offered a hard-hitting response that went to the heart of the bloc’s problems: “All this is very well, but conditionality on membership are not possible.”
“This is not good enough for us,” the ambassador added. Sources from the Élysée Palace had been quoted earlier in the day describing Tusk’s offer as a “clumsy trial balloon”.
The Netherlands, the UK’s closest ally in the Brexit talks, is yet to take a clear position. But on Friday the Dutch prime minister, Mark Rutte, said Britain’s request needed to be clarified before or at a summit.
“Theresa May’s letter raises many questions, which need to be discussed,” Rutte told reporters. “We hope for more clarity from London before next Wednesday.”
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